A few statewide ballot measures, two governors? races, some statehouse elections and a smattering of local races ? Tuesday?s low-turnout, off-year elections hardly illuminated the 2012 election landscape.
But when added to the body of evidence that accumulated over the course of 2011 ? which includes 5 House special elections, West Virginia?s special governor?s election last month and Wisconsin?s summer legislative recall elections ? the contours for 2012 become a little clearer.
Continue ReadingPOLITICO dissects voting results
Here are POLITICO?s lessons from the 2011 elections:
Democrats: not dead yet
The president?s approval ratings are anemic. The Senate is within the reach of the GOP. Winning back the House seems like a stretch. But as grim as things may appear for the Democrats, there?s plenty of reason for hope in 2012.
Democrats managed to win five of six statewide elections in Kentucky Tuesday ? victories that suggested voters in unfriendly states are willing to differentiate local pols from the national party.
And judging from the results of the upstate New York special election on May 24, the GOP plan to overhaul Medicare is a potent arrow in the Democratic quiver. While special elections typically have limited predictive value, Democrat Kathy Hochul found success by zeroing on an entitlement-centered message ? proving that it remains, as ever, a highly volatile issue.
Traditionally Democratic constituencies showed Tuesday they can still bring it when they engage. Organized labor won a big victory in Ohio by rolling back Senate Bill 5, the state?s new collective bargaining law. Abortion rights advocates helped sink a Mississippi referendum that would have effectively banned abortions in the conservative state. Supporters of same-sex marriage helped keep the Iowa State Senate in Democratic hands with a special election victory.
Obama?s a drag
For many Democratic candidates who will be sharing the ticket with Barack Obama in 2012, the president is not going to be an asset. And in some states, it?s clear he is going to be deadweight.
In the September House special election for a New York City-based seat, Republican Bob Turner cast Democrat David Weprin as a loyal Obama foot soldier. Weprin?s campaign was deeply flawed, but there?s no getting over the numbers: According to a Siena Research Institute poll conducted just prior to the election, Obama registered just a 43 percent approval rating in the comfortably Democratic district.
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